Strategy
The peso ended 2025 with its biggest gain since 1994: what it means for buyers in 2026
The peso gained 13.8% against the dollar in 2025 and moved again in March. What it means for Riviera Maya buyers in 2026, in dollars or in pesos.
For whom
Buyers from the US and Canada who watch the exchange rate before deciding.
The peso ended 2025 at 18.01 per dollar, up 13.8% for the year. It is the largest gain since Mexico adopted a free-floating exchange rate in December 1994. On December 23 it reached 17.92, a level not seen since July 2024.
In March, volatility came back. The armed conflict between the United States and Iran, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, strengthened the dollar, and the peso lost more than 50 cents in one week. Even so, analysts in the Citi survey slightly improved their forecast: they expect the year to close at 18.18 per dollar, with estimates ranging from 17 to 19.10.
For anyone buying in the Riviera Maya in 2026, there are three scenarios. Here they are in round numbers.
If you earn dollars and the property is priced in pesos
A 6 million peso condo cost about 287,000 dollars with the dollar at 20.88, where 2024 closed. With the dollar at 18 it costs about 333,000. The peso price did not move; in dollars it is 46,000 more.
If you earn dollars and the property is priced in dollars
The price is the same. What goes up are the costs paid in pesos: notary, acquisition tax, property tax and, if the building bills in pesos, HOA fees. With the dollar at 18, those costs are about 16% higher in dollars than with the dollar at 20.88.
If you earn pesos and the property is priced in dollars
It works in your favor. A 300,000 dollar property cost 6.26 million pesos at the end of 2024 and costs 5.4 million with the dollar at 18.
What we recommend in 2026
- Run your numbers at today's exchange rate and at two other scenarios, for example 17 and 19.
- Put in the contract the currency of the price and the exchange rate to be used, especially in pre-construction deals with monthly installments. We explain it in buying in dollars or in pesos.
- If the property is priced in pesos and you earn dollars, negotiate. A seller pricing in pesos also knows the price went up for foreign buyers.
- Do not buy or wait just because of the exchange rate. Even forecasters disagree: in the Citi survey the range goes from 17 to 19.10.
Our take
In 21 years we have seen the peso very weak and very strong. A purchase has to make sense at any reasonable exchange rate. If it only works with the dollar at 20, it is not a real estate investment; it is a currency bet.
If you are comparing a property priced in pesos with one priced in dollars, send us both and we will run the numbers with you.