Market
Tulum is correcting: what the 2025 data says before you buy
New-home sales in Tulum fell 32% to 35% since 2023 and more than 10,000 units are for resale. What to check before buying there.
For whom
Anyone considering a purchase in Tulum or holding a pre-construction deal there.
In July, Expansión reported that housing oversupply is stalling Tulum's real estate "splendor". With data from the consultancy 4S Real Estate, new-home sales fell between 32% and 35% since 2023, there are more than 10,000 units for resale, and vacation rental occupancy is below 50%.
List prices, on the other hand, kept rising. With Tinsa data cited in the same report, the price per square meter for apartments went from 64,621 pesos in the first quarter of 2021 to 74,729 in the first quarter of 2025, and for houses from 27,701 to 42,863. At the same time, units got smaller: the average size went from 125 square meters at the end of 2015 to about 83 in 2024.
When fewer homes sell while units shrink and list prices keep climbing, inventory piles up.
What it means for buyers today
- The list price says little. With more than 10,000 units for resale, what matters is the real closing price.
- The studio or one-bedroom built for vacation rentals is the most crowded product, with occupancy under 50%.
- There is room to negotiate, especially on resales and finished inventory.
- Legal certainty matters more than ever. When a market cools, projects with legal or financial problems are usually the first to stall.
What we would check before buying in Tulum
- The closing price of similar units in the same area, not just the list price.
- How many units of the same type are for sale and for rent nearby.
- Real rental occupancy month by month, with proof, if the plan is to rent.
- Deed, lien-free certificate and land use. For pre-construction, also construction progress and the developer's track record.
- Whether the purchase makes sense without counting on prices rising over the next two or three years.
In our guide on investing in Tulum we explain the areas and the most common legal risks.
Our take
We have spent 20 years watching this area grow, correct and grow again. Tulum has things nobody can copy, but it grew too fast. We think it will recover; we do not think it will take just a year. Meanwhile, for anyone buying calmly and with the paperwork in order, a correction is also a good moment to buy well.
If you hold a pre-construction deal in Tulum or are about to buy there, send us the details and we will tell you how it compares with what is available in the area.