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Why is Tulum so quiet right now? What the data says in October 2026

From 12 international routes to 4, 63.7% hotel occupancy and condos 47.6% cheaper than in 2023. What happened in Tulum and what it means if you are buying.

By Homero·8 min read·Published: October 19, 2026

Why is Tulum so quiet right now? What the data says in October 2026

For whom

Anyone wondering if Tulum is over, and anyone holding a presale or an offer there.

Tulum lost two of every three international flights in a year and has more condos for sale than buyers. That is the short answer. The long one has dates, sources and a part almost nobody covers: what it means if you are thinking of buying there.

We have been in Playa del Carmen for 21 years, an hour north of Tulum. We watched it grow, we watched it boom and now we are watching it correct. In September 2025 we published the data on the correction. This is what happened next.

What happened to the flights to Tulum?

The airport opened on December 1, 2023 and by 2024 it had 12 international destinations. In May 2026 four were left: Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Miami, all on US airlines, according to Reportur. Avianca, Copa, JetBlue and Volaris Costa Rica had already left.

The figures from Mexico's civil aviation agency, the AFAC, point the same way. In the first half of 2026 the terminal handled 471,500 passengers, 33.2% fewer than the 705,400 of the same period in 2025. International operations fell from 301 in August 2025 to 109 in August 2026.

Then came the announcements. Aeroméxico suspended all its Tulum flights on September 30, 2026 and called it a temporary pause due to market conditions. Volaris stops flying there on January 7, 2027, citing route profitability and the rise in the non-resident fee, which goes from 861 pesos in 2025 to 1,334.80 in 2027. American Airlines drops Miami, Los Angeles and Charlotte in January and keeps one daily Dallas flight on a 72-seat aircraft.

Fewer seats means fewer people. It is that simple.

How many people are actually coming?

Quintana Roo's tourism ministry counted 1,805,341 visitors in Tulum in 2023, 1,773,767 in 2024 and 1,679,190 in 2025. From January to July 2026 the count stands at 879,229. Average hotel occupancy from January to July was 63.7%, against 72.7% in the same period of 2025.

The archaeological site, the oldest thermometer the destination has, received 257,978 visitors in the first quarter of 2026, 33.1% fewer than the 385,879 of 2025, according to the INAH.

And low season was rough. In September, David Ortiz Mena, president of the Mexican Caribbean hotel council, said coastal hotels were running below 20% occupancy and all-inclusives below 30%, about ten points under the previous year. In mid October the state tourism information system showed 41.8% for Tulum.

Why did people stop going?

There is no single cause, and be wary of anyone who gives you just one.

The fees. Military control of access to the national park and the charges to reach the beach and the ruins top the list in the regional press. The federal government answered in July with Plan Tulum Renace: free entry to Jaguar Park for Mexican visitors, the archaeological zone fee cut in half and ten public access points to the beach.
Prices. Francisco Madrid, of Universidad Anáhuac, estimates that the strong peso makes Mexico 15 to 20% more expensive for foreign visitors. On top of that sit the restaurant, hotel and taxi prices Tulum charged in the good years.
Sargassum, again. Miriam Cortés, president of the Quintana Roo vacation club association, told EFE that the lack of attention to sargassum is one of the reasons tourism is going elsewhere.
Safety weighs on the image, even though the numbers improved. Intentional homicides in Tulum fell 61.7% in 2025 compared with 2024 and the municipality left the list of the country's 50 most violent in January 2026. Madrid describes it as a reputation problem that does not explain the whole drop.
Promotion is missing. According to Madrid, Turkey spends about 250 million euros a year promoting itself and Mexico spends far less. The Dominican Republic grew 8.4% in international arrivals in the first eight months of the year while the Mexican Caribbean fell.

My father summed it up before these numbers came out: "Very fast growth, unchecked, abuse by authorities, excessive fees, sargassum."

What happened to condo prices?

This is the part that matters if you are buying.

Mario San Miguel, president of the realtors' association AMPI in Tulum, told El Economista that condo prices fell 47.6% between 2023 and 2025, and that more than 80% of what sold after the pandemic sold in presale. His reading: prices "have already hit bottom".

The InfoHabitat study with Softec data explains how it got there. Units under construction went from 1,466 in 2017 to 13,266 in 2023. Inventory for sale reached 6,340 units in 2023, almost double 2019. Annual sales dropped from 3,487 units in 2023 to 1,711 in 2025, close to half. And developers built smaller condos to hold the price per square meter.

Vacation rentals, the whole sales pitch, filled up with competition. Manuel Lozano, director of the Expo Renta Vacacional, reported that average occupancy in Tulum fell from 25% in 2024 to 20.5% in 2025 and the nightly rate from 147 to 145 dollars, with 11,000 units on platforms against 12,000 hotel rooms. As of August 28, 2026, the state tourism ministry counted 4,277 active rentals in Tulum at 46% occupancy. The two figures measure different things, but neither looks anything like the occupancy those presales were sold on.

On top of that, since 2026 platforms only list properties with the state RETUR-Q registration. We explain it in our article on the registry.

In the inventory shared by Riviera Maya brokers, as of August 11, 2026 there were 384 condo listings in Tulum priced in dollars, with a median entry price of 199,951 dollars. You can see them area by area in condos for sale in Tulum.

So is it worth buying in Tulum today, or not?

It depends on what you buy. A studio for nightly rentals and a titled lot are not the same thing.

A condo for tourist rentals competes today with more than 4,000 active listings, fewer flights and occupancy that does not reach half the year. If the deal only works at brochure occupancy, it does not work. Bought finished, at a closing price you compared, with the condo bylaws in hand, it can work as a second home that rents sometimes. As a pure rental investment, we would not recommend it today.

Land is a different story. A titled lot does not depend on this winter's occupancy or on whether American brings back the Miami flight. It depends on Tulum still being there in five years, and it will be. My father puts a timeline on the recovery: "I do think it will recover, but it will take about three or four years." And he sums up his position in one line: "I see more future in land."

That is why in Tulum we represent Retorno San José, lots that are titled right away and free of liens, and why our page of land for sale in Tulum (in Spanish) has eight listings and not eighty. In the brokers' inventory there were 61 land listings in Tulum as of August 11, with a median of 146,953 dollars.

If what you want is rental income and liquidity, the honest comparison is in Tulum vs Playa del Carmen. And before you sign anything in Tulum, the legal risks of the area are in our guide to investing in Tulum.

If you hold a presale in Tulum or have an offer in hand, send it over. We will compare it with what is around it and tell you how it looks, even when the answer is not good for us.

What happened to the flights to Tulum?

How many people are actually coming?

Why did people stop going?

What happened to condo prices?

So is it worth buying in Tulum today, or not?

Sources